Renewable and nuclear power: Two strategic sources of Vietnam
Climate change is increasingly present, causing significant impacts on the production and life of many parts of the earth. Many countries have agreed on the need to transform the structure of energy use, in order to reduce climate change and sustainable development. This conversion process is carried out depending on the energy source and financial capacity of each country. Vietnam is a developing country, the demand for energy is growing rapidly, but it is not an exception, it is necessary to have studies, integrated plans and suitable and effective energy use restructuring for the country. , and at the same time contribute to the international community to carry out the responsibility of the times.
Assoc. BUI HUY PHUNG – MAGAZINE OF VIETNAMESE ENERGY MAGAZINE
Primary energy consumption and global electricity production
Below introduces some of the latest BP energy statistics [1], tables 1 and 2, which allow us to visualize the overall picture of energy use, as well as global electricity in recent years.
Table 1: Global primary energy consumption by type of energy (million TOE):
| Type / year | Petroleum | Gas | Coal | Nuclear | Water energy | Renewable energy | Total |
| 2014 | 4211,1 | 3065,5 | 3881,8 | 574,0 | 879,0 | 316,9 | 12928,4 |
| 2016 | 4567,3 | 3073,2 | 3706,0 | 591,2 | 913,3 | 417,4 | 13258,5 |
| 2017 | 4621,9 | 3156,0 | 3731,5 | 596,4 | 918,6 | 486,8 | 13511,2 |
| 2018 | 4662,1 | 3309,4 | 3772,1 | 611,3 | 948,8 | 561,3 | 13864,9 |
From the data in Table 1 shows that primary energy consumption is increasing, in 2018 reached over 13.86 billion TOE with an increase of about 1.5% / year, all forms of energy increased, including nuclear energy, renewable energy (RE) increase faster than the whole (about 15-16% / year), fossil energy sources account for 90% of total primary energy consumption.
With the energy consumption as mentioned above, traditional energy sources are gradually exhausted. Some assessments are different, but all show: the source of hydroelectricity is exhausted; Oil and gas only use about 50 years; abundant coal reserves (about 1,000 billion tons), can be used for more than 100 years. Particularly, the potential of RE and nuclear is evaluated to be endless.
Table 2: Global energy production by fuel type (billion kWh):
|
Type / year |
Petroleum |
Gas |
Coal |
Nuclear |
Water energy |
Renewable energy |
Total |
|
2014 |
1086 |
4933 |
8726 |
2417 |
3769 |
1520 |
22433 |
|
2016 |
958,4 |
5849,7 |
9451 |
2612,8 |
4036,1 |
2022 |
24930,2 |
|
2017 |
883 |
5915,3 |
9723,4 |
2635,6 |
4059,9 |
2334,1 |
25551,3 |
|
2018 |
802,8 |
6182,8 |
10100,5 |
2701,4 |
4193,1 |
2480,4 |
26461 |
Table 2 shows that global electricity production is increasing at a rate of about 2.5% per year. In 2018, it reached over 26.46 trillion kWh, of which only oil for electricity production decreased; gas, hydro power increased. Coal still increased in absolute value, the proportion decreased but still remained above 38%. Nuclear power after the Fukushima incident, a number of countries adjusted to reduce, but overall continued to increase, accounting for over 10% of total global electricity production. Producing electricity from fossil fuels accounts for 75% of global production. Electricity from renewable energy has increased rapidly in recent years, in 2018 reaching 2480.4 billion kWh, accounting for 9%.
Production and consumption of energy in Vietnam
Current situation of energy consumption in Vietnam has increased rapidly. According to the statistics of the National Program on economical and efficient energy use (EE&C), Vietnam’s final energy consumption in 2012 was 56.7 million TOE, in 2015 consumed about 70 million TOE, in 2018 about 80 million TOE, an average increase of 6-7% / year. In 2018, coal consumption is about 40 million tons; crude oil 17 million tons; gas is about 10 billion m3. Electricity consumption in recent years has increased rapidly (about 9-10% / year). In 2019, the total electricity capacity will be 54,880 MW, electricity production will reach nearly 240 billion kWh; commercial electricity reached 209.4 billion kWh, commercial electricity increased by 8.8% compared to 2018; 2.177kWh per capita electricity consumption. Infrastructure of the energy industry is developing fast. Currently, the scale of power source has ranked second in Southeast Asia, the 30th in the world. The content of using effectively and saving energy, protecting environment is gradually being better managed, but the efficiency is still low.
Commercial electricity and growth rates over the past ten years (2010-2019) are shown below.
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Commercial electricity (billion kWh) | |||||||||
| 87,66 | 98,63 | 105,47 | 117,0 | 128,4 | 141,8 | 159, | 174,0 | 192,9 | 209,4 |
| Tốc độ tăng (%) | |||||||||
| 15,2 | 12,5 | 7,0 | 10,9 | 9,7 | 10,4 | 12,3 | 9,2 | 10,5 | 8,8 |
According to the revised PDP VII (PDP VII D) [2], the total electricity produced compared to PDP VII, is reduced by about 20%. Specifically, in 2015: 164 billion; 2020: 265 billion; 2025: 400 billion; 2030: 575 billion kWh. In particular, coal thermoelectricity has a large proportion, over 50% of total electricity production, hydropower decreased from 25 to 12.4%, electricity from gas at 17-19%, renewable electricity increased by 6.5-6 , 9% in the period 2020-2025 to 10.7% in 2030. Compared to the PDP VII, the proportion of electricity from renewable energy is adjusted to increase 1.8 times, but the absolute amount is only 1.3 times, because of the total power production is reduced by 20%. Accordingly, the actual electricity production per capita, in 2016: 2,010 kWh; in 2017: 2,050 kWh; in 2018: 2,250 kWh and in 2019: 2,407 kWh.
With the consumption and forecast as mentioned above, it may lead to comments:
1 / Vietnam energy consumption is still low, compared with the world average, energy consumption in general in Vietnam is only about 40%, electricity consumption is only about 65%; so our energy efficiency is still very low, on average for one dollar of GDP, electricity consumption in Vietnam is 3-4 times higher than advanced countries.
2 / However, in this day and age, the use of high technology, low energy consumption but efficiency, sustainable development, environmental protection is something of concern.
3 / With relatively modest energy consumption, Vietnam has shown a lack of resources: hydroelectricity has been exhausted, hydroelectricity has just started, but must have “free resources” to be able to accumulate; coal, oil and gas are not much, in recent years, tens of millions of tons of coal and oil have been imported … therefore, the requirement of addition and conversion of energy source structure is necessary and objective.
As we know, all types of energy sources have advantages and disadvantages. For the purposes of this article, what are the characteristics of “renewable electricity” (DTT) and “nuclear power” (nuclear power) that can complement each other?
– Characteristics of nuclear power sources:
1 / Technology for nuclear reactors, turbines, generators has been standardized, automated with a high level, nuclear safety is increasingly improved.
2 / Large capacity scale, the unit can reach 1,000 MW and higher.
3 / Power factor (HSCS), high load capacity (85-90%).
4 / The number of working hours is over 7,500 hours / year.
5 / Highly economical, electricity prices can reach about 7 cents / kWh (depending on the country).
6 / Fuel used is uranium minerals. Depending on technology and finance, the potential can be used for hundreds of years, the future of fast neutron technology is complete, the potential of uranium and thorium can ensure long-term use.
7 / No greenhouse gas emissions, less land use and less waste; Plant life is much longer than traditional thermal.
8 / Create favorable conditions for many development disciplines: basic science, medicine, mechanics, control, materials, chemical technology, many applications in industry, agriculture, environmental protection …
9 / Disadvantages, potentially radioactive leakage, including from waste – is what worries the community about nuclear incidents.
Since the first construction of nuclear power plant has been 6-7 decades, technology has been constantly improved over 3-4 generations, the level of nuclear safety is increasing, contributing over 10%. global electricity production at a price comparable to coal. About the incident and accident have occurred, but typically there are two incidents.
Firstly, the Chernobyl Incident (1986) caused 60 deaths directly from the accident and subsequent radiation exposure.
The second is: In 2011, the Fukushima incident in Japan due to the massive earthquake and tsunami of 14-15 meters caused great human and economic losses to Japan. The power plant suffered an incident and had to evacuate a large number of people in the area surrounding the plant, but no deaths from radiation exposure. These are very serious accidents, overcome difficulties and costly.
However, the accidents of classical and other industrial power plants are equally bad. There are many statistics, for example, some cases of hydroelectric dam failure in China (1975); the failure of the Xepian-Xe Nam Noy Dam (July 2018) in southern Laos has flooded many villages; In 1984, Bhopal gas leak at Union Carbide Plant (India), accidents of mine collapse, explosion of thermal power boiler also occurred. However, not because of the incident we abandon, discriminate against these industries.
– Characteristics of renewable energy sources:
In recent years, renewable energy attention has been developed rapidly. The following mentioned two main sources: Sun and wind.
Investment rates and prices of electricity from solar energy (DMT) and wind have decreased significantly in the last 5-7 years. PV investment in Asia is currently about 1,100 USD / kW, wind power onshore, offshore respectively about 1,700 USD / kW, 4,500 USD / kW; The average electricity price in the world is about 9 cents / kWh, in Asia is about 11 cents / kWh.
In Vietnam, solar power projects in Ninh Thuan invest about 1,050 USD / kW, onshore wind power is about 2,500 USD / kW, FIT price for solar power: 9.35 cents / kWh (according to the Prime Minister’s Decision 11 in 2017 ).
– Solar and wind power have advantages and limitations:
1 / Solar and wind energy in Vietnam has great potential.
2 / No greenhouse gas emissions.
3 / The technology of solar power and wind is getting better and better, the unit’s capacity is increasing, the investment cost, the electricity price in recent years have decreased significantly and there is a possibility of further reduction. However,
4 / From the natural characteristics, the weather is clear, DMT and wind are not continuous, especially the sun, so the power use factor (HSCS) is very low – for PV is only about 15-18% , onshore wind power is about 30%, offshore wind power is about 35-38%, while biomass is 70%, coal, oil, gas thermal power is 75-80%, nuclear power is 90%.
5 / Because HSCS of PV and wind are low, these sources cannot guarantee uninterruptible power supply, especially at night, during periods of calm, extreme weather. The price of electricity from PV and wind is often reported to be calculated with the equipped capacity when there is sunshine and wind; In order to ensure uninterruptible power supply, it is necessary to have traditional power source support, backup and energy storage battery, need large cost, need to calculate fully and transparently.
6 / Solar power and wind are often scattered, using large construction land, transmission and distribution stages are difficult, increasing costs; Life expectancy is assessed about 20 years.
7 / In Vietnam recently, developing renewable energy without planning, especially solar power development is quite massive, it can be said disorder, the total installed capacity has reached nearly 5,000 MW and there are over 200 projects waiting for approval. Browser. Although the total capacity of wind power and wind power accounts for nearly 9.2% of the total system capacity, the amount of electricity accounts for only about 2.6% of the system. Many solar PV projects in the Central region have no-load sources; not synchronized with the electricity system, the electricity price according to Decision 11-2017 has had inadequacies, it is necessary to have studies to adjust in the direction of bidding to reduce electricity prices.
– Some recent studies in the direction of integration:
Firstly, within the framework of the project “Integrating RE targets into Vietnam’s electricity system” implemented by World Bank to help the Ministry of Industry and Trade [7], Preliminary results report at Hanoi Workshop on 30-5 -2018 shows that international experts have initially calculated renewable energy integration with Vietnam’s electricity system. On the basis of PDP VIIDC, if reducing CO2 by 25%, coal by 10%, must invest another 45 billion USD for RE, to stabilize electricity system, it needs to invest another 12 billion USD for reserve capacity, until 2035. Calculation results also need to discuss both methods and databases. It was the international experts who realized that right at the seminar: This is just an “exercise”, just a “message” contributing to the further development of the VIII Electricity Plan.
The second is the cooperation project of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and Denmark: Vietnam Potential Prospects 2019 – EOR19 [8.9], new results are announced at the Workshop on November 4, 2019 in Hanoi, with Computing quite scientifically, the report announced a number of power and power development scenarios, recommending a number of policies for Vietnam. However, the proposals on energy source, RE share, smart grid, system stability … probably need more specific calculations and discussions.
Third: For many years, the Electricity Planning has many shortcomings [2,3,4], in 2017 the Ministry of Industry and Trade requested to build the National Energy Development Plan for the period 2016-2025, with the orientation to 2035. The report was prepared by the Institute of Energy in June 2017 [4], although there is some content about the method, the updating of the data … needs to be discussed, but the report has been prepared quite elaborately, Calculating the National Electricity Planning in relation to common energy sources, unfortunately the work is stopped, waiting for the preparation of the Electricity Planning VIII (!)
Comment
Firstly: With the aforementioned context, it can be judged that: Currently and in the near future, renewable electricity cannot be directly and directly replaced in large and reliable quantities for traditional power sources from coal, gas. , big hydroelectric, nuclear power.
Second: No project has considered to calculate in detail the complementary relationship between renewable electricity and nuclear power.
Thirdly, renewable energy and nuclear power have long-term potential, no GHG emissions, HSCS, although large differences, but can complement each other and other energy sources to ensure continuous energy supply. , sustainability, security. This allows us to think that: Two sources of nuclear power and renewable electricity will become two long-term strategic energy sources.
Integrated development of renewable electricity and nuclear power:
Decision 1264 / QDTTg, approved on October 3, 2019, required research into the implementation of the “National Energy Master Plan” (CCA). Accordingly, it is necessary to establish the optimal structure of energy sources and power sources for the whole planning period. Therefore, it is necessary to derive from the situation of international economic – energy – environment development, the country’s socio-economic development strategy, the conditions of domestic and foreign energy sources, statistical information, energy demand forecast, technological progress, economic – technical – environmental indicators of energy sources. Calculate the ability of each other to replace each other, determine the competitive, complementary relationship between energy sources. From the systematic approach point, modern methods and calculation tools will be used to develop the plan, which Vietnam has currently transferred and studied, listed at [4, 5,6,7,8].
The NTP-RCC, in terms of Vietnamese science and legislation, has complete grounds for implementation. However, there are also significant difficulties, the time for planning is short, but many necessary documents are not sufficient, especially data on the National Master Plan; Land use planning for the period of 2021-2030, vision to 2050 has just begun. Many figures on economic – technical – environmental indicators, technology forecasts … are lacking in both quantity and reliability.
Planning calculations will identify general / rational development scenarios for common energy, of which the National Power Plan, period 2021-2030 and vision 2045 will be central. The proposed scenarios will recommend the structure and volume of energy sources and power sources that need to be mobilized, to ensure regional and national needs with total optimal system costs over the years and stages of zoning. The proposed results must be scientifically detailed, detailed and legally based.
Conclusions and recommendations
1 / The world is in the transition of energy use structure to ensure social justice. Vietnam is in the process of transforming the sustainable development model. The Government has assigned the task of developing the NTP-RCC, in accordance with the Planning Law, which is absolutely necessary and correct. This is a scientific and legal basis for conducting energy sub-sectoral plans, especially the Power Plan VIII.
2 / Scientific conferences should be organized to discuss the strategy of energy development and the structure of future power sources, inviting all national and international scientists to participate.
3 / Need to organize scientific and detailed calculations with a reliable database to determine the integrated development process with a reasonable structure of renewable sources of electricity with traditional sources, especially clarifying the supplementation. support between two strategic resources is renewable electricity and nuclear power in the Planning period to 2030 and vision to 2045, to soon prepare for deployment, especially human resources for nuclear.
4 / Proposing the Ministry of Industry and Trade to organize and mobilize relevant units to participate in the elaboration of this Planning. Organize consultancy bidding to plan and carry out contents according to law.
5 / Proposing the Government to consider and adjust the extra time for elaborating the NSSP; On the other hand, directing to accelerate the National Master Plan./.
Hanoi, early Spring Canh Ty – 2020
References:
[1] BP Statistical Review of the WE-2019 [2] EIA-Nuclear Power Economics, 2019 [3] PDP VII- 2011 and PDP VII DC 3-2016 [4] Bui Huy Phung – Inadequacy of PDP VII and recommendations for overcoming, Vietnam Energy Magazine, 5-2018 [5] Draft Report of Renewable Energy Planning – Institute of Energy – Ministry of Industry and Trade – 7-2017 [6] Bui Huy Phung – Integrating development of reasonable investment with traditional power sources, Vietnam Energy Magazine, 12-2019 [7] Bui Huy Phung, NTP-RC is the scientific and legal basis of the energy sector planning, Vietnam Energy Magazine, (No. 8.9), 2012 [8] Workshop document for MOIT and WB, Hanoi 2018 [9] BC Outlook for NLVN-EOR19 – Hanoi, 11-2019 [10] RE for Vietnam, Institute Sustainable Futures, Australia, 2019According nangluongvietnam.vn
